PETR4 Projection Tracking: CapEx Overshoot and PN Swap
FRE projection sections are not only forward tables — they include a status ledger: which guidance lines were abandoned, substituted, repeated, or still valid. Petrobras (PETR4) is a sharp example around the PN 2026–2030 swap.
This page summarizes a projection-tracking analysis from the 2025 FRE. apicvm returns the filings.
The research question
> Which projections were updated or dropped, and do the premises still hold?
Status ledger after PN 2026–30
With the Business Plan 2026–2030, prior packages (PE 2023–27, PE 2024–28, PN 2025–29) show rows marked Abandoned or Substituted. Aggregate CapEx lines from prior plans were replaced by PN 2026–30 annual and portfolio figures. Remaining in-horizon lines may still appear as Valid or pending.
CapEx realization vs guidance (2024)
| Pattern | Detail cited |
|---|---|
| Overshoot example A | Actual US$ 16.6bn vs guidance band 13.5–14.5 |
| Overshoot example B | Actual US$ 13.9bn vs guidance band 11.1–12.1 |
| Main drivers | Payment milestones on new Búzios production systems; postponements (e.g. PID Barracuda/Caratinga; Búzios line replacements) |
Exact line mapping belongs in the FRE table — agents should extract the status columns, not invent a single “CapEx miss” narrative.
Premise classes
| Class | Examples |
|---|---|
| Outside management control | Macro, FX, oil/gas prices, rates, inflation, regulation |
| Influenced by management | Pricing policy, shareholder returns, reference cash, operating efficiency, project execution, debt/portfolio/risk management |
Projections are framed as hypothetical, valid until the next annual plan review or a material scenario change. Even “controllable” premises remain exposed to reservoir uncertainty and supplier delays.
Research takeaway
For projection research, filter FRE pages with name=Proje and parse the status column. Pair with the PN 2026–2030 numbers page for the active reference path.
Replicate with apicvm
export APICVM_KEY='apicvm_...'
export APICVM_URL='https://apicvm.dev'
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $APICVM_KEY" \
"$APICVM_URL/v1/companies/resolve?query=PETR4&by=ticker"
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $APICVM_KEY" \
"$APICVM_URL/v1/documents?ticker=PETR4&type=FRE&year=2025&name=Proje"
curl -X POST -H "Authorization: Bearer $APICVM_KEY" \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"callback_url":"https://your-server/callback","document":{"id":"<id>"}}' \
"$APICVM_URL/v1/document-text-extractions"Methodology note
Findings above come from a completed Hold analysis of the company's public 2025 FRE. This is a research illustration, not investment, legal, or tax advice. Verify numbers against the original filing before trading, modeling, or publishing reports.
Limitations
- apicvm returns filings and extracted text — it does not classify risks or compute coverage ratios.
- Figures are as of the FRE filing date; later ITRs or facts relevantes can update them.
- Corpus coverage depends on ingestion lag.
Next steps
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